As alliances shift, The Guardline examines the rising threat on the Red Sea
A Fragile State Becoming a Strategic Risk
In October 2023, Sudan’s transitional authorities restored diplomatic relations with Iran, a move that reverberated far beyond Khartoum.
Amid an ongoing civil war that has shattered the country since April 2023, Sudan’s leadership has veered away from its once-promising normalization path with Israel, instead aligning with Tehran — a geopolitical shift Israel interprets as a potential threat to its national security.
Intelligence assessments suggest Iran is exploiting Sudan’s political vacuum, military fragmentation, and institutional collapse to rebuild its regional influence after major losses in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Gaza.
Tel Aviv Reassesses Sudan’s Trajectory
Israeli security officials now warn that Sudan could serve as a forward operating base for Iranian operations on the Red Sea.
- Reports indicate that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have received Iranian-made drones, missile components, and possibly chemical and biological agents during the ongoing conflict.
- This alleged cooperation involves factions loyal to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and figures linked to the defunct Islamist National Congress Party.
In response, Israel is preparing preemptive military options, including F-16 patrols along the Red Sea corridor and strike plans targeting Sudanese military sites if Iranian influence deepens.
Port Sudan Emerges as a Flashpoint
Concerns escalated following the docking of Iranian warships in Port Sudan, only weeks after an airstrike on the Flamingo military base.
To Israeli analysts, this signaled a covert military partnership forming between Khartoum and Tehran, marking Sudan’s effective entry into the Iran–Israel confrontation sphere and raising fears it could become a conduit for Iranian arms shipments and future attacks on Israeli or allied interests.
Washington Applies Pressure
Meanwhile, the United States under President Donald Trump has re-engaged on the Sudan file, seeking a diplomatic success after faltering in Ukraine and Gaza.
- Sanctions targeting Sudanese military networks came into force in June.
- U.S. officials are reportedly pressing for an immediate ceasefire, the removal of Islamist hardliners from Sudan’s leadership, and a shift back toward a civilian-led transition.
A Nation on the Edge
Sudan now stands at a dangerous crossroads.
- Aligning fully with Iran may offer short-term military support but risks long-term isolation, sanctions, and preemptive Israeli action.
- Yielding to U.S. pressure could trigger internal upheaval within the military-Islamist power bloc controlling Khartoum.
As Burhan consolidates power under Tehran’s shadow and Prime Minister-designate Kamal Idris struggles for relevance, the Sudanese people remain trapped — bearing the cost of war, poverty, and the looming specter of regional confrontation.
In an information landscape clouded by disinformation, The Guardline will continue to guard what matters most: the truth
